The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis-Europe (RCEA-Europe) at DEMS-UNIMIB, the Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE of the Goethe University Frankfurt, the Deutsche Bundesbank, and the European Central Bank, invite submissions for The Third International Conference on the Climate-Macro-Finance Interface (3CMFI): "Emerging Macroeconomic, Financial, and Environmental Policy Challenges in an Era of Policrisis and Rising Uncertainties”. 

The foundations and institutions of the post-World War II financial order are being rattled, hampering supranational decision-making. At the same time, the fundamentals of the integrated global economy, which has brought welfare to many countries, are being rocked. While these crises are intensifying, the increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events, the unabated deterioration of the natural environment, and biodiversity loss provide evidence that a more profound existential crisis is also unfolding. While new technologies and economies of scale are advancing rapidly, mounting competition over rare earths and other critical minerals essential to the Green Transition is hampering it. This existential struggle is hindered by several concurrent challenges, including the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, which exacerbate existing risks to global trade and supply chains. Rising tariffs and trade restrictions stemming from US policy changes, as well as retaliatory measures from China, Europe, and other industrialized countries, could lead to higher inflation and slower global economic growth. Such deepening of the ongoing "deglobalization" trend could lead to increased price volatility, supply chain vulnerabilities, and financial tensions.  The world economy is vulnerable to a complex interplay of significant uncertainties and volatility shaping the global economic and financial landscape. This is already evident from the adverse financial market developments triggered by trade policy changes, economic policy uncertainty, and the ongoing slowdown in growth. The uncertain impact of the rapid ascent of artificial intelligence on labor markets and cybersecurity, as well as the AI-empowered diffusion and manipulation of fake news, adds further elements of international economic decoupling and risk.

Against this backdrop, the conference seeks to bring together academics and policymakers to discuss policy challenges and inform the development of policy solutions in an emerging regime of political crises, rising uncertainties, and macro-financial volatility.

Topics of particular interest for the conference are:

• De-globalization effects on labor and product markets

• Supply chains and international trade disruptions

• Planetary boundaries, extreme weather, biodiversity loss trends, and their macro-financial impact

• AI-deepening and diffusion and its macroeconomic effects

• Regional and global economic, financial, and economic policy international decoupling

• Productivity slowdown

• The Macro-Finance of the Green Transition

• The end of the Great Moderation, the emerging new macroeconomic regime, and challenges for fiscal, monetary, and macroprudential policies in multi-crisis contexts

• Policy challenges from persistent adverse supply-side developments and compounded macroeconomic, financial, and geopolitical risks and uncertainties

• Scenario generation and stress tests under a multi-crisis context (geopolitical, environmental, …)

• Econometric tools for policy analysis and forecasting macro-financial variables and extreme-weather events in a multi-crisis environment.

Program Details

Keynote Speakers

• Hilary Allen (American University)

• Robert F. Engle (New York University)

• Stefano Giglio (Yale University) 

• Philip Lane (European Central Bank)

• Sabine Mauderer (Bundesbank)

Special Sessions

• European Central Bank Special Session

• Bundesbank Special Session