The RCEA Colloquium 2023

International Workshop on 

Macroeconomic Regime Changes: 

Theory, Evidence, and Policy Challenges Ahead 

Centre for Macroeconomics, London School of Economics, December 1, 2023

Jointly organized by the Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM, LSE), the Center for European Studies (CefES, UNIMIB), and the Rimini Center for Economic Analysis-Europe (RCEA-Europe, UNIMIB)

The Great Moderation, a benign macroeconomic regime lasting over 40 years in industrialized countries, might be over. The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and ensuing Great Recession initially, the COVID-19 pandemic recession, and the geopolitical crisis triggered by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine more recently, have probably started a reversal in the favorable supply-side developments that had a key role in the Great Moderation.  Hence, key questions concern the characteristics of the new macroeconomic regime emerging ahead. Is the new regime ahead inflationary or even stagflationary? The reversal in the past favorable demographic trends and the ongoing de-globalization reducing international trade and technological, capital, and migratory flows, are potential sources of inflationary pressures, and further pressures might originate from a persistent worsening in climatic conditions. Will the new regime show a higher natural interest rate?  The potential decumulation of savings in the face of increased investment in the new regime might trigger such an outcome, ending secular stagnation-kind distortions that have emerged since the GFC. Will the current productivity slowdown persist in the new macroeconomic regime? The productivity slowdown in advanced countries started in the 1990s and has deepened since the GFC. Several explanations have emerged, ranging from the exhaustion of the technological frontier to the delayed manifestation of the benefits of technological innovations, and secular stagnation distortions, to name a few. This question is also key concerning the economic policies that should be implemented in the new macroeconomic regime. In this respect, what are the policy challenges ahead? The emergence of an inflationary bias increases the likelihood of wage-price spirals and the risk of deanchoring agents' expectations and undermining central bank credibility. In this context, central banks will also have to trade off higher inflation for higher financial stability, as monetary tightening, by rising debt servicing costs, might trigger financial disruptions in the private and public sectors. Other concerns include the nexus between fiscal policy and financial stability, the debt trap, and shaping supply-side policies to contrast stagflation pressures by promoting economic growth, technological innovation, and market competition.  

Against these scenarios, the workshop gathers academics and policymakers to discuss recent scientific results concerning the end of the Great Moderation, the emergence of a new macroeconomic regime, and the associated challenges for economic policy. Topics of interest, without being exhaustive, concern inflation and stagflation, globalization and de-globalization, the slowdown in productivity growth, demographic and labor market trends, macroeconomic regimes and the financial-business cycle nexus, macroprudential and resilience policies, fiscal and monetary policy in a time of crisis, fiscal policy and financial stability, disinflationary supply-side policies and supply-side growth policies.

Charles Goodhart, CBE, FBA, Emeritus Professor of Banking and Finance with the Financial Markets Group at the London School of Economics will present a keynote talk on “Beyond the Great Moderation: Evidence and Policy Challenges".


Deadline: Friday, 20 October 2023

Authors interested in presenting their research at the workshop should submit their papers by filling out the Google form.  The deadline for submission is Friday, 20 October 2023. Authors of accepted papers will be notified of acceptance by Friday, 27 October 2023. Participation in the workshop is free.  Limited refunding of traveling expenses is available for presenting authors. 

If you like to attend the workshop as an auditor, please fill out the form here.

Workshop location: Centre for Macroeconomics, London School of Economics, Houghton Street London. 

The workshop features an open SI of the European Economic Review on Macroeconomic Regime Changes: Theory, Evidence, and Policy Challenges. Guest editors: P. Benigno, C. Morana, R. Reis, and P. Tirelli. The SI opens (closes) submissions on December 15, 2023 (April 15, 2024). Final decisions will be made on all manuscripts by October 15, 2024. Further information will be made available at: 

Workshop Program: here



Pierpaolo Benigno (University of Bern, RCEA)

Marcelle Chauvet (University of California-Riverside, RCEA)

Claudio Morana (CefES, RCEA, University of Milano-Bicocca)

Ricardo Reis (CFM, London School of Economics)

Patrizio Tirelli (University of Pavia, CefES, RCEA)



Our sponsors

CefES International Workshop

The Costs of Non-Europe and the European Integration Project: Economic, Legal, and Political Opportunities and Hindrances 

 5 October 2023, University of Milano-Bicocca, Milan, Italy

Jointly organized by the Center for European Studies of the University of Milano-Bicocca (CefES-DEMS), the Joint Research Center of the European Commission (JRC-EC), and The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis Europe ETS (RCEA-Europe ETS)

The Covid-19 pandemic first and Russia's invasion of Ukraine successively have recently been an important test for the European project. EU collective action has proven successful in fostering the overall resilience of the EU system by reinforcing Member States' health systems and improvements to the energy and defense sectors. The green transition will further require significant investment efforts in EU Member States consistent with the modernization of the production and consumption patterns necessary to achieve the decarbonization targets set over the next thirty years. Additional challenges are posed by the digital transition, with reference not only to production and labor markets but also concerning market structures, competition, ethics, media freedom, and democracy. These challenges are also not disconnected from the current geopolitical turmoil. Europe faces different options, i.e., the status quo, strategic, collective action, and fragmentation. The workshop aims to assess the economic, legal, and political opportunities and hindrances to further progress in the European integration process. 

The workshop's first session provides insights into the potential benefits of EU-level legislation in several areas, including the rule of law, digital finance, artificial intelligence, workers' protection, legal migration, and gender-based violence. The cost-benefit analysis of Brexit three years later is further informative of the value of pursuing the European integration process for societal prosperity versus fragmentation. This analysis is most important considering the contagion effects that such voter-endorsed withdrawal from the EU has exercised in other core EU Member countries, such as France, Italy, and Spain. 

The workshop's second session focuses on the concept of European identity, as reflected in the same attitudes to life of EU Member States, based on a determination to build a society that measures up to the needs of the individual, and that defends the principles of representative democracy, of the rule of law, of social justice, and of respect for human rights. The European Parliament, on various occasions, has stressed that Europe's tragic past should serve as a moral and political inspiration to face the challenges of today's world. European remembrance has slowly become strategic for the future of the Union and its integration process. The workshop's second session assesses whether a different culture of remembrance in Eastern and Western EU member countries may threaten a common European identity and the integration project based on EU values.


9 am Welcome:  Giovanna Iannantuoni (Rector; University of Milano-Bicocca), Claudio Morana (CefES Director, University of Milano-Bicocca)

9:15 am Session 1: The Costs of Non-Europe - Part 1. Chair Claudio Morana (University of Milano-Bicocca and CefES)


10:45 am Coffee break

11:15 am Session 1: The Costs of Non-Europe - Part 2. Chair Gino Gancia (University of Milano-Bicocca and CefES)

12:45 am Lunch


2:00 pm Keynote Session: Stefanie Walter (University of Zurich). The Mass Politics of Disintegration. Chair Silvia Marchesi (University of Milano-Bicocca and CefES)

2:45 pm Session 2: Historical Memory and EU Integration - Part 1. Chair Monica Bonini (University of Milano-Bicocca and CefES)


3:45 pm Coffee Break


4:15 pm Session 2: Historical Memory and EU Integration - Part 2. Chair Monica Bonini (University of Milano-Bicocca and CefES)


5:15 pm Concluding remarks

Location: University of Milano-Bicocca, “Sala Lauree del Dipartimento di Giurisprudenza”, Agorà building (Ex-U6), second floor, Piazza dell’Ateneo Nuovo, 1 - 20126 Milano, and online (Zoom).

For additional information and updates see CefES's workshop webpage

Contact: CefES

5th International Conference on European Studies

 12-14 June 2023, Zurich 

Swiss Economic Institute KOF-ETH

The KOF Swiss Economic Institute (KOF) and the Center for European Studies of the University of Milano-Bicocca (CefES-DEMS), jointly with the Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis Europe ETS (RCEA-Europe ETS), the European Institute of the London School of Economics and Political Science (EI), the Joint Research Center of the European Commission (JRC-EC), the Bocconi Lab for European Studies (BLEST), and the Robert Schuman Center for Advanced Studies (EUI), are organizing the 5th International Conference on European Studies at the Swiss Economic Institute, ETH, Zurich, Switzerland, on June 12-14, 2023

The Conference gathers scholars from different fields in Economics and Social Sciences, with the objective of contributing to the empirical and theoretical debate on Europe. The Conference provides a forum of discussion for scholars interested in the European economic, social, and political situation, in the evaluation and design of institutions and policies in and for Europe, with a particular focus on North-South, East-West, and Rural-Urban Divide in Europe.

Conference topics are:

1. Macro, money, banking, and finance

2. European governance

3. Wellbeing, inequality, and polarization

4. Migration, cooperation, and trade

5. Climate change and energy policies

6. The economic, social, and political impact of COVID-19 and the Russian war in Ukraine

The Network for European Studies is proud to carry on this initiative. The 5th Conference on European Studies aims to connect scholars working on European issues all over the world and to strengthen their cooperation, particularly in this period of high human, social, economic, and political distress.

Program Details

Keynote Speakers

Keynote Panelists

Conference Program: 

The Conference Program is published here.

Conference venue: 

The in-person conference will take place at the Swiss Economic Institute (KOF, ETH Zurich), Zentrum Campus, Rämistrasse 101, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland. 

Deadlines and submission

Registration fee


Paper submission:  

Please submit through Conference Maker

Programme Committee


Further Information

RCEA-Europe International Conference on

Global Threats to the World Economy

An online crowdfunding conference to support Ukrainian students

2-3 February 2023


Online on zoom (Europe, CET; North America EST through PST)

Due to the pandemic shock, inflation has returned. The energy crisis triggered by Russia's war in Ukraine has added further price pressure, particularly in Europe, leading to double-digit inflation rates in many advanced countries. Short-term inflationary pressure originates mainly from energy markets, supply chains, and labor market developments. The risk of stagflation cum weakening financial markets hampers the implementation of disinflationary monetary policies, posing threats of financial disruptions stemming from interest rate hikes.  However, the inflationary outlook is also gloomy in the medium term, as most of the favorable supply-side developments during the Great Moderation are at risk of undoing due to de-globalization forces reducing international trade and technological, capital, and migratory flows. Climate change and environmental degradation pose further threats in terms of extreme weather disruptions to economic activity and harvests and the spread of new pandemic waves. Energy prices might be further subject to increases as the green transition appears to occur before the supply of renewable resources can adequately meet energy demand.

Against these scenarios, the conference aims to present and discuss recent scientific results and advance policy solutions. Topics of interest, without being exhaustive, concern inflation and stagflation, globalization and de-globalization, climate change and its economic and financial effects, green transition risk, financial crises, macroeconomic regimes, macroprudential and resilience policies, fiscal and monetary policy in a time of crisis.

The conference's revenue will finance scholarships for Ukrainian students to enroll in the MSc programs in International Economics or Global Management at the University of Milano-Bicocca or similar programs at other European universities. Co-funding is a requirement for suitable institutions to compete for the allocation of the RCEA-Europe scholarships. Scholarships are awarded in collaboration with the Ukrainian Global University initiative at the Kyiv School of Economics.

The conference features keynote speeches by Robert Engle (New York University), Refet S. Gürkaynak (Bilkent University), David F. Hendry (Oxford University), Jesus Gonzalo (University of Madrid Carlos III), Frank Smets (Ghent University; ECB), Raphael Schoenle (Brandeis University; Center for Inflation Research – Cleveland Fed). Online participation is free through zoom.

The full Conference Program including zoom links can be found here

Keynote Panel Session 1: Climate and Financial Risk       Watch here

Keynote Panel Session 2: Inflation and Macroeconomic Risk       Watch here

We are still collecting donations to fund scholarships for Ukrainian students.

Please, click here to access the PayPal/credit card payment tool.


Special issue of Research in Globalization

Submit your work on Europe at the SI we publish on Research in Globalization on the Future of Europe. Please click here for info about the SI.



Scientific Committee

Karim Abadir (Imperial College London, RCEA)

Lucia Alessi (Joint Research Center – European Commission)

Richard Baillie (Michigan State University, RCEA)

Pierpaolo Benigno (University of Bern, RCEA Europe, RCEA)

Marcelle Chauvet (University of California-Riverside, RCEA)

Guillaume Chevillon (Essec Business School)

Ana Herrera (University of Kentucky, RCEA)

Fredj Jawadi (University of Lille)

Michele Lenza (European Central Bank)

Corrado Macchiarelli (RCEA-Europe, CefES)

Anastasios Magdalinos (University of Southtampton)

Claudio Morana (University of Milano-Bicocca, RCEA-Europe, RCEA, CefES, CeRP-CCA)

J. Isaac (Zack) Miller (University of Missouri, RCEA)

Tommaso Proietti (University of Roma - Tor Vergata, RCEA)

Livio Stracca (European Central Bank)

Patrizio Tirelli (University of Pavia, RCEA Europe, RCEA, CefES)

Scientific Committee Chair

Claudio Morana (University of Milano-Bicocca, RCEA-Europe, RCEA, CefES, CeRP-CCA)



Contact address: RCEA

Sponsors and donors

First RCEA Panel on Predictability in Science and Society

Thursday, 26 January 2023


Online on zoom (EU: 5 pm - 7 pm CET, Milan; US: 8 am - 10 am PST, Riverside)



RCEA is organizing an interdisciplinary colloquium on predictability in the Natural and Social Sciences with prominent researchers from various disciplines.  Even in their more quantifiable disciplines, such as Economics, Social Sciences have always struggled with experimentation, measurement, and predictability limitations. Lucas (1977), in the wake of Frisch (1938) and Marschak (1953), elaborated on the inherent difficulties in identifying structural relationships. Such challenges have marred economic policy analysis, which requires structure invariance under potential interventions. Physics (more generally, Natural Sciences) may be converging toward an impasse that has slowed progress in the Social Sciences: "During the last few decades, our view upon matter, the fundamental forces, and the geometry of spacetime have undergone a metamorphosis, enabling us to extrapolate our knowledge towards time- and distance scales that in fact cannot be directly probed by experiment." (Gerard t ‘Hooft, 2001). The impossibility of experimentation, measurement, and predictability could obstruct scientific progress and open epistemological precipices. 


RCEA wishes to bring together researchers from different fields to debate predictability in relation to the common thread of the effect of experimentation limits on the ability to make predictions. Is Predictability feasible even without experimentation? Is verifiability essential, while experimentation is not? These and similar questions could emerge from an interdisciplinary conversation.  Cross-discipline cooperation and cross-pollination of ideas have, in the past, helped develop path-breaking insights. It has happened recently with the marrying of Economics and Psychology by Kahneman and his co-authors (Fleming, 2004) or the application of earthquake modeling to predictions in financial markets (Rundle, 2016). We hope that this colloquium could bring similar fruits.



The First Panel features keynote speeches by Nancy Cartwright (Durham University and University of California San Diego), David F. Hendry (Oxford University), and Carlo Rovelli (Aix-Marseille University). Chair: Paolo Giordani (Norwegian Business School, RCEA).

Panel Program 

David F. Hendry (Oxford University), Predictability, Forecasting, and Randomness

Carlo Rovelli (Aix-Marseille University), Predictability and uncertainty play the same role in life, society, and science

Nancy Cartwright (Durham University and University of California San Diego), Singular causation and its evidence: Warranting causal predictions in the single case

The recording of the webinar is available on the RCEA YouTube channel. Please click here. 

Organizers: Karim Abadir (Imperial College London, RCEA), Marcelle Chauvet (University of California-Riverside, RCEA), Paolo Giordani (Norwegian Business School, RCEA), Claudio Morana (University of Milano-Bicocca, RCEA) Gianluigi Pelloni (RCEA).



Participation is free upon registration in zoom here