The RCEA Colloquium 2023

RCEA-Europe International Conference on

Global Threats to the World Economy

An online crowdfunding conference to support Ukrainian students


2-3 February 2023

 

Online on zoom (Europe, CET; North America EST through PST)


Due to the pandemic shock, inflation has returned. The energy crisis triggered by Russia's war in Ukraine has added further price pressure, particularly in Europe, leading to double-digit inflation rates in many advanced countries. Short-term inflationary pressure originates mainly from energy markets, supply chains, and labor market developments. The risk of stagflation cum weakening financial markets hampers the implementation of disinflationary monetary policies, posing threats of financial disruptions stemming from interest rate hikes.  However, the inflationary outlook is also gloomy in the medium term, as most of the favorable supply-side developments during the Great Moderation are at risk of undoing due to de-globalization forces reducing international trade and technological, capital, and migratory flows. Climate change and environmental degradation pose further threats in terms of extreme weather disruptions to economic activity and harvests and the spread of new pandemic waves. Energy prices might be further subject to increases as the green transition appears to occur before the supply of renewable resources can adequately meet energy demand.


Against these scenarios, the conference aims to present and discuss recent scientific results and advance policy solutions. Topics of interest, without being exhaustive, concern inflation and stagflation, globalization and de-globalization, climate change and its economic and financial effects, green transition risk, financial crises, macroeconomic regimes, macroprudential and resilience policies, fiscal and monetary policy in a time of crisis.


The conference's revenue will finance scholarships for Ukrainian students to enroll in the MSc programs in International Economics or Global Management at the University of Milano-Bicocca or similar programs at other European universities. Co-funding is a requirement for suitable institutions to compete for the allocation of the RCEA-Europe scholarships. Scholarships are awarded in collaboration with the Ukrainian Global University initiative at the Kyiv School of Economics.


The conference features keynote speeches by Robert Engle (New York University), Refet S. Gürkaynak (Bilkent University), David F. Hendry (Oxford University), Jesus Gonzalo (University of Madrid Carlos III), Frank Smets (Ghent University; ECB), Raphael Schoenle (Brandeis University; Center for Inflation Research – Cleveland Fed). Online participation is free through zoom.



The full Conference Program including zoom links can be found here


Keynote Panel Session 1: Climate and Financial Risk       Watch here


Keynote Panel Session 2: Inflation and Macroeconomic Risk       Watch here



We are still collecting donations to fund scholarships for Ukrainian students.

Please, click here to access the PayPal/credit card payment tool.


  

Special issue of Research in Globalization

Submit your work on Europe at the SI we publish on Research in Globalization on the Future of Europe. Please click here for info about the SI.

 


 

Scientific Committee

Karim Abadir (Imperial College London, RCEA)

Lucia Alessi (Joint Research Center – European Commission)

Richard Baillie (Michigan State University, RCEA)

Pierpaolo Benigno (University of Bern, RCEA Europe, RCEA)

Marcelle Chauvet (University of California-Riverside, RCEA)

Guillaume Chevillon (Essec Business School)

Ana Herrera (University of Kentucky, RCEA)

Fredj Jawadi (University of Lille)

Michele Lenza (European Central Bank)

Corrado Macchiarelli (RCEA-Europe, CefES)

Anastasios Magdalinos (University of Southtampton)

Claudio Morana (University of Milano-Bicocca, RCEA-Europe, RCEA, CefES, CeRP-CCA)

J. Isaac (Zack) Miller (University of Missouri, RCEA)

Tommaso Proietti (University of Roma - Tor Vergata, RCEA)

Livio Stracca (European Central Bank)

Patrizio Tirelli (University of Pavia, RCEA Europe, RCEA, CefES)



Scientific Committee Chair

Claudio Morana (University of Milano-Bicocca, RCEA-Europe, RCEA, CefES, CeRP-CCA)

 

 

Contact address: RCEA

Sponsors and donors

First RCEA Panel on Predictability in Science and Society


Thursday, 26 January 2023

 

Online on zoom (EU: 5 pm - 7 pm CET, Milan; US: 8 am - 10 am PST, Riverside)

 

 

RCEA is organizing an interdisciplinary colloquium on predictability in the Natural and Social Sciences with prominent researchers from various disciplines.  Even in their more quantifiable disciplines, such as Economics, Social Sciences have always struggled with experimentation, measurement, and predictability limitations. Lucas (1977), in the wake of Frisch (1938) and Marschak (1953), elaborated on the inherent difficulties in identifying structural relationships. Such challenges have marred economic policy analysis, which requires structure invariance under potential interventions. Physics (more generally, Natural Sciences) may be converging toward an impasse that has slowed progress in the Social Sciences: "During the last few decades, our view upon matter, the fundamental forces, and the geometry of spacetime have undergone a metamorphosis, enabling us to extrapolate our knowledge towards time- and distance scales that in fact cannot be directly probed by experiment." (Gerard t ‘Hooft, 2001). The impossibility of experimentation, measurement, and predictability could obstruct scientific progress and open epistemological precipices. 

 

RCEA wishes to bring together researchers from different fields to debate predictability in relation to the common thread of the effect of experimentation limits on the ability to make predictions. Is Predictability feasible even without experimentation? Is verifiability essential, while experimentation is not? These and similar questions could emerge from an interdisciplinary conversation.  Cross-discipline cooperation and cross-pollination of ideas have, in the past, helped develop path-breaking insights. It has happened recently with the marrying of Economics and Psychology by Kahneman and his co-authors (Fleming, 2004) or the application of earthquake modeling to predictions in financial markets (Rundle, 2016). We hope that this colloquium could bring similar fruits.

 

 

The First Panel features keynote speeches by Nancy Cartwright (Durham University and University of California San Diego), David F. Hendry (Oxford University), and Carlo Rovelli (Aix-Marseille University). Chair: Paolo Giordani (Norwegian Business School, RCEA).


Panel Program 

David F. Hendry (Oxford University), Predictability, Forecasting, and Randomness

Carlo Rovelli (Aix-Marseille University), Predictability and uncertainty play the same role in life, society, and science

Nancy Cartwright (Durham University and University of California San Diego), Singular causation and its evidence: Warranting causal predictions in the single case


The recording of the webinar is available on the RCEA YouTube channel. Please click here. 


Organizers: Karim Abadir (Imperial College London, RCEA), Marcelle Chauvet (University of California-Riverside, RCEA), Paolo Giordani (Norwegian Business School, RCEA), Claudio Morana (University of Milano-Bicocca, RCEA) Gianluigi Pelloni (RCEA).

 

 

Participation is free upon registration in zoom here