The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis-Europe (RCEA-Europe) at DEMS-UNIMIB, the European Central Bank, the De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB), and the Erasmus School of Economics of Erasmus University Rotterdam, invite submissions for The Fourth International Conference on the Climate-Macro-Finance Interface (4CMFI): "Economic Policy in an Era of Compounded Climatic, Geopolitical, and Technological Risks”. 

The forthcoming Fourth International Conference on the Climate–Macro–Finance Interface (4CMFI) builds on a series of previous events that have progressively investigated the emergence of a new macroeconomic regime: the end of the Great Moderation (1CMFI), the environmental challenges confronting fiscal, monetary, and macroprudential policy (2CMFI), and the macro-financial consequences of polycrisis and rising uncertainty (3CMFI). Whether a whole, new regime has already taken hold—and, if so, how it should be characterized—remains an open and still-unsettled question.

Persistent negative supply-side pressures, demographic reversal, de-globalization, geopolitical fragmentation, the accelerating climate, nature and biodiversity crises, and the rapid spread of artificial intelligence may be reshaping the macro-financial environment. Rather than a series of isolated shocks, these forces may be combining into a system of mutually reinforcing pressures—though some may yet prove temporary or partly offsetting. Against this backdrop, the 4CMFI conference will examine the changing landscape and potential regime change in relation to the features of the diverse supply-side shocks, inflationary and stagflationary pressures, natural real interest rate dynamics, secular stagnation, and the productivity slowdown. Two questions are of particular interest: first, how do climate, geopolitical, and technological forces interact, and through which channels they become self-reinforcing risks?; and second, how might the digital and green transitions reinforce one another in ways that support growth in a sustained and sustainable manner?

The 4CMFI conference then turns to policy implications, assessing how fiscal, monetary, and macroprudential policies -together with structural measures- can be designed and, crucially, coordinated to enhance resilience. Specific issues include how to preserve central bank credibility and debt sustainability when monetary tightening, climate-related fiscal needs, and geopolitical stress pull in opposite directions; how to finance adaptation, mitigation, and supply-side renewal without amplifying financial fragilities; how AI reshapes productivity, labor markets, and financial stability, and whether it can be harnessed as part of the solution; and how to reconcile resilience-building with open trade and international cooperation in a fragmented order. 

Against this background, 4CMFI will bring together academics, researchers, and policymakers to advance our understanding of these unfolding macro-financial dynamics and to propose actionable, evidence-based policies -confronting frontier scientific findings with the operational constraints faced by central banks, treasuries, and supervisors, so as to clarify the nature of the emerging regime and the policy frameworks that could stabilize it.

We welcome submissions on the following topics, among others:

• The end of the Great Moderation: Is the supply-side reversal permanent? Inflation, stagflation, and the level of the natural rate of interest.

• The productivity slowdown: competing explanations and early evidence of an emerging regime.

• Climate change, nature degradation, and biodiversity loss; physical and transition risk: pricing, stress testing, scenario design, and insurance.

• The macro-financial implications of artificial intelligence: productivity, labor markets, and financial stability.

• Geoeconomic fragmentation, deglobalization, critical minerals, and supply-chain disruptions.

• Debt sustainability, the debt trap, and the fiscal–financial stability nexus under climate and geopolitical stress.

• Disruptions to the global order and the reshaping of policy frameworks and institutional coordination (monetary, fiscal, macroprudential) for the new regime.

• Financing the green and digital transitions under fiscal constraints.

• Resilience and supply-side growth policies that are robust to deep regime uncertainty

• Macroprudential policy and resilience against compound and cascading risks (climatic, geopolitical, technological).

• Inflation, stagflation risk, expectation anchoring, and central bank credibility in a fragmented world.

• Adapting econometric tools for measuring and forecasting macro-financial and extreme-weather risk in a multi-crisis environment.

• Characterizing the new macroeconomic regime: structural breaks vs. transitory shocks, and econometric tests of regime change.

The conference will take place over two days and will feature parallel sessions, poster sessions, special sessions and keynote presentations.

Program Details

Keynote Speakers

• Bas ter Weel (De Nederlandsche Bank) 

• TBA

Special Sessions

• De Nederlandsche Bank 

• European Central Bank Special Session