Macroeconomic Regime Changes

International Workshop on 

Macroeconomic Regime Changes: 

Theory, Evidence, and Policy Challenges Ahead 

Centre for Macroeconomics, London School of Economics, December 1, 2023

Jointly organized by the Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM, LSE), the Center for European Studies (CefES, UNIMIB), and the Rimini Center for Economic Analysis-Europe (RCEA-Europe, UNIMIB)

The Great Moderation, a benign macroeconomic regime lasting over 40 years in industrialized countries, might be over. The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and ensuing Great Recession initially, the COVID-19 pandemic recession, and the geopolitical crisis triggered by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine more recently, have probably started a reversal in the favorable supply-side developments that had a key role in the Great Moderation.  Hence, key questions concern the characteristics of the new macroeconomic regime emerging ahead. Is the new regime ahead inflationary or even stagflationary? The reversal in the past favorable demographic trends and the ongoing de-globalization reducing international trade and technological, capital, and migratory flows, are potential sources of inflationary pressures, and further pressures might originate from a persistent worsening in climatic conditions. Will the new regime show a higher natural interest rate?  The potential decumulation of savings in the face of increased investment in the new regime might trigger such an outcome, ending secular stagnation-kind distortions that have emerged since the GFC. Will the current productivity slowdown persist in the new macroeconomic regime? The productivity slowdown in advanced countries started in the 1990s and has deepened since the GFC. Several explanations have emerged, ranging from the exhaustion of the technological frontier to the delayed manifestation of the benefits of technological innovations, and secular stagnation distortions, to name a few. This question is also key concerning the economic policies that should be implemented in the new macroeconomic regime. In this respect, what are the policy challenges ahead? The emergence of an inflationary bias increases the likelihood of wage-price spirals and the risk of deanchoring agents' expectations and undermining central bank credibility. In this context, central banks will also have to trade off higher inflation for higher financial stability, as monetary tightening, by rising debt servicing costs, might trigger financial disruptions in the private and public sectors. Other concerns include the nexus between fiscal policy and financial stability, the debt trap, and shaping supply-side policies to contrast stagflation pressures by promoting economic growth, technological innovation, and market competition.  

Against these scenarios, the workshop gathers academics and policymakers to discuss recent scientific results concerning the end of the Great Moderation, the emergence of a new macroeconomic regime, and the associated challenges for economic policy. Topics of interest, without being exhaustive, concern inflation and stagflation, globalization and de-globalization, the slowdown in productivity growth, demographic and labor market trends, macroeconomic regimes and the financial-business cycle nexus, macroprudential and resilience policies, fiscal and monetary policy in a time of crisis, fiscal policy and financial stability, disinflationary supply-side policies and supply-side growth policies.

Charles Goodhart, CBE, FBA, Emeritus Professor of Banking and Finance with the Financial Markets Group at the London School of Economics will present a keynote talk on “Beyond the Great Moderation: Evidence and Policy Challenges".


Deadline: Friday, 20 October 2023

Authors interested in presenting their research at the workshop should submit their papers by filling out the Google form.  The deadline for submission is Friday, 20 October 2023. Authors of accepted papers will be notified of acceptance by Friday, 27 October 2023. Participation in the workshop is free.  Limited refunding of traveling expenses is available for presenting authors. 

If you like to attend the workshop as an auditor, please fill out the form here.

Workshop location: Centre for Macroeconomics, London School of Economics, Houghton Street London. 


Pierpaolo Benigno (University of Bern, RCEA)

Marcelle Chauvet (University of California-Riverside, RCEA)

Claudio Morana (CefES, RCEA, University of Milano-Bicocca)

Ricardo Reis (CFM, London School of Economics)

Patrizio Tirelli (University of Pavia, CefES, RCEA)



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